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我与⼀位朋友打赌, 他⼀般是在我可以击败spread点差让分50%的地⽅下 注、或者在将临的NFL美式⾜球每⼀场正规球季。如果我赢的话, 我会拿 到$1000. 如果他赢的话, 我得⽀付$500. 直到10/31/10星期⽇我领先19场 ⽐赛、⽽他要与我deal交易妥协。这时哪⼀种提议⽐较好？ 如果⼀⽀NFL球队在上次⽐赛彻底被击败, 在下⼀场的⽐赛是否还要押注 他们、或者反向押注他们？相同的问题也针对在⼀次⽐赛⼤胜之后。我总 会听到, ⼀⽀球队在⼤输之后、将会「想要证明⾃⼰」, ⽽⼀⽀球队在⼤赢 之后、或许因为过度⾃信⽽变得懒散。怎样才是真的？ 什么样的动态会影响⾜球总分的押注、当球季进⾏当时, 天⽓会变坏、还 有更多关于球队最近表现的资讯？有多容易(或多难)去发现赌盘的错误？ 在NFL美式⾜球4th quarter场次之前onside kick边场踢球成功的机率是多 少。我是说, Super Bowl超级杯当中的动作绝对是聪明的, 可是Saints的教 练是否有统计数值⽀持他的决定、或者只是灵机⼀动⽽已？

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